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Oz Net Modeling - Initial message

Except for the addition of this comment and changes to the layout and navigation links, the content of this page was last updated on 23 May 1999. The Oz Net Modeling Project is no longer active.

Oz Net Modeling - Initial message

This is the message that started the Oz Net Modeling Project aimed at quantifying the effects of the government's proposed Net censorship legislation (the Broadcasting Services (Online Services) Amendment Bill).

Date: Sat, 22 May 1999 00:54:21 +1100
From: Michael Baker <mbaker@pobox.com>
Cc: <stop-censorship@efa.org.au> (Stop Censorship)
Subject: [STOP] economic analysis of bill

I'm intending to put together an economic analysis of the effects of the bill.

I'll set up a model of the economics of the Net. I'll include about four user groups (end users/consumers, business, universities/research, government) both in Australia and outside of Australia. I'll model the traffic they generate and the content they produce. I'll also model the ISPs, backbone providers, and overseas links.

This will be a dynamic model with built in growth assumptions.

I'll then set up various scenarios that illustrate possible effects of the Bill. The impacts that I'm expecting are:

  • Classification costs
  • Take down costs
  • Content moving overseas leading to lost business
  • Content moving overseas leading to increased invisible imports
  • Increased traffic from overseas
  • Decreased traffic to overseas
  • Increased cost of overseas link

These impacts in turn will lead to:

  • Increased cost to consumers
  • Increased cost to business
  • Loss of bussiness
  • Net loss of jobs
  • Loss of tax
  • Increased imports
  • Decreased exports
  • Reduction in GDP

Any thoughts, suggestions or offers to help most welcome.

As I get futher with this I'll post updates and requests for help locating specific info to feed into the model I build.

Michael.
--
Dr Michael Baker, EFA Founding Board Member, ISOC-AU Founder Member
PO Box 5, Flaxley, SA 5153, Australia Ph: +61 8 8388 8439
<mailto:mbaker@pobox.com> <http://pobox.com/~mbaker>
For more info: <http://www.efa.org.au> <http://www.isoc-au.org.au>

Copyright © 1999 Dr Michael Baker
When I figure out how, the content of the Oz Net Modeling Project web site will be covered by a copyleft.
mbaker@pobox.com

Last updated 23 May 1999
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