Abstract

PROBLEMS IN LONGTERM FORECASTING AND PLANNING:
WITH REFERENCE TO TRANSPORT AND ENERGY

In this thesis I have set out my experiences of forecasting in the long term. (I have taken long term to be anything beyond 5 to 10 years). I have set forecasting in its context as a component of the planning process and have related the problems of forecasting to the ensuing problems in planning.

The main areas I have covered are Transport and Energy, in a UK context. However I have touched on other fields and I expect the conclusions I have drawn about forecasting and planning to apply to many fields.

The thesis is in two parts plus appendices.

In the first part I report three substantial pieces of research. They illustrate many of the problems associated with forecasting, and I examine possible solutions to these problems.

In the second part I describe how forecasts are made and some of the problems inherent in forecasting. I then examine why forecasts appear to be necessary in the planning/ policy making process. I conclude with the implications that my views on forecasting have for planning, and areas in which further research would be fruitful.