Michael Baker - Thesis - Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning
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In this appendix I will give the sources of data which I used for each of the figures and tables in Chapter 1 and the data which is available for further work. These are covered below, in sections A1.2 and A1.3 respectively.
Prior to about 1975 all sources of Freight Transport statistics used imperial units. However in this appendix only metric units are used. In general all imperial data was metricated before use.
The most general source of data for recent freight statistics is Transport Statistics Great Britain (Department of Transport annual a) which gives data on many aspects of transport, generally for the previous 11 years. However it was first published in 1976 covering the years 1964 to 1974. Prior to its publication some of the data it contains was published in Highway Statistics (Department of the Environment annual). Another general source of data is the Annual Abstract of Statistics (Central Statistical Office annual a) which gives estimates of the tonnes of freight lifted per year and tonne-km moved per year by each mode of domestic surface transport (Road, Rail, Pipeline, Coastal shipping and Inland waterway).
Apart from these few general sources most freight transport statistics cover individual modes. Some of the exceptions to this are the details given in the Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics (Department of Energy annual) of coal tonnages lifted per year, and of oil tonnages lifted per and tonne-km moved per year, by each mode.
The figures which would be required for further work, are the tonnes lifted per year and tonne-km moved per year by each mode, for as many commodities as possible. I will deal with the modes separately in the order Road, Rail, Coastal shipping, Inland waterway, Pipeline and Air.
I found no solution to the problem of some statistics covering GB whilst others cover Northern Ireland as well. In general the sections in A1.3 on each mode make no specific reference to this problem, nor is mention made of the details available in Department of Energy (annual) on coal and oil.
The tonnages of freight lifted per year and the tonne-km of freight moved per year by all modes were obtained from several years Annual Abstract of Statistics (Central Statistical Office annual a).
The average distances over which freight was moved were derived from the data used for Figures 1.1 and 1.2.
The production or coal per year was obtained from several years Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics (Department of Energy annual) and the remaining primary inputs and imports were obtained from Central Statistical Office (annual a). As noted in Chapter 1, subsequent to the analysis I found that the data given in Central Statistical Office (annual a) does not cover all imports.
The average number of moves was derived form the data used for Figures 1.1 and 1.5.
The commodity breakdown of tonne-km moved per year and of tonnes lifted per year in GB was based upon data given in Transport Statistics GB 1964-74 (Department of Transport annual a). This gives details of eight commodities moved and lifted by Road, Rail and Pipeline. The figures for the other modes were estimated such that the totals for all commodities agree with the data used for Figures 1.1 and 1.2.
The average distance over which freight was moved was derived from the data used for Figures 1.7 and 1.8.
The way in which the net volume of production of each commodity in 1968 was obtained is explained in Appendix 3. The corresponding figures for 1962 and 1974 were estimated on the basis of production figures for the 3 years given in Central Statistical Office (annual a).
The quantity of each commodity lifted in 1962 and 1974 were those used for Figure 1.8.
The quantities for 1968 were found by interpolating between the figures for 1962, 1967/68 and 1974 and then pro-rating the figures so that the total of all goods lifted was equal to that given in Central Statistical Office (annual a). This adjustment was of the order of 1%.
The average number of moves were derived from the previously mentioned two sets of figures.
Details of the supply, tonnage lifted and tonne-km of petroleum moved each year were obtained from Department of Energy (annual). The average number of moves and average length of move were then derived. (This time series is only available from 1965 to 1975).
The main sources of data on road freight transport are sample surveys which were conducted in 1952 (Glover and Miller 1954), 1958 (Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation 1959), (Glover 1960), (Ministry of Transport 1964-66), 1967-8 (Department of the Environment 1971) and a continuing quarterly sample survey since 1970 for which reports are available covering 1970-2 (Department of the Environment 1974a) and and subsequent years (Department of Transport annual b). From 1974 results from the continuing survey appear in Department of Transport (annual a). (Details of the commodity classifications used are given in Appendix 2).
From the results of the sample surveys estimates of the tonnes lifted and tonne-km moved for different commodities each year can be obtained or made. Those made on the basis of the earlier surveys would be very approximate.
Details on the size of road goods vehicles, the types of operators and the work performed are contained in the reports on the sample surveys. These can be compared with the numbers of goods vehicle licenses held and estimates of the distance travelled by goods vehicles. Highway Statistics (Department of the Environment annual) contains details of vehicle licenses by vehicle type and size. Distances travelled can be obtained from the 50 point traffic census (Tanner and Scott 1962, Dunn 1962,3,4,5,6,7, Dunn and Shepard 1968, Dunn 1970,1,2,3,4) and monthly road traffic surveys, the results of which are published in Department of the Environment (annual) and Department of Transport (annual a). For years prior to the establishment of the 50 point census and monthly road traffic surveys, details of goods vehicle travel are contained in a paper by Scott and Tanner (1962). Using this supplementary data it would be possible to make interpolations between the road freight sample surveys to obtain estimates of the work done by road goods vehicles in other years. However at a detailed level of commodity breakdown such estimates would be very approximate.
The Annual Report and Accounts of the British Transport Commission (1948 to 1962) and of British Rail (annual) give details of tonnes lifted per year, tonne-km moved per year and the average length of haul for Merchandise; Minerals; Coal and Coke (1948-62) and Coal and Coke; Iron and Steel; Other (1963-present). Transport Statistics Great Britain (Department of Transport annual a) gives the same figures but with a more comprehensive commodity breakdown, from 1964 onwards. Deakin and Seward (1969) give the tonne-km moved per year for various commodities carried in 1958 and 1962. These figures were provided by the British Railways Board. The tonnage of approximately the same commodities carried by rail in 1962 are given in Ministry of Transport (1964-66). The results of a survey conducted by BR in 1964 were used by O’Sullivan (1972) though he did not publish the results of the survey.
One problem with statistics compiled by British Rail is the inclusion or non-incluslon of free hauled traffic; that is freight such as ballast and rails which British Rail moves for its own purposes. To be comparable with road freight statistics which include the movement of material for the maintenance or roads, free hauled traffic on the railways should be included.
Central Statistical Office (annual a) contains the tonnages carried per year of eight commodities carried by rail in Northern Ireland for the years 1949 to 1965.
The Digest of Port Statistics cso_annual_a gives the tonnages of 40 commodities inwards and outward every year for each major port from 1967 onwards. However it does not give their respective origins or destinations. These must be known or estimated for the calculation of the total tonne-km moved per year by coastal shipping Which appears in Central Statistical Office (annual a).
The Survey of Road Goods Transport 1962 (Ministry of Transport 1964-66) gives details of the tonnes lifted and tonne-km moved (inland equivalent) for 7 commodities by Coastal Shipping.
Ford and Bound (1951) give details of how they constructed an origin and destination matrix for commodities in 1948. They also give the tonnages lifted, tonne-km moved and average length haul for 15 commodities in the same year.
Elliott (1968) gives an indication of the tonnages of coal delivered to different ports from the Tyne in 1937 and 1954. The work of Ford and Bound (1951) indicated that coal was the major commodity moved from the Tyne in 1948.
Failing all else it would be possible to construct a linear programming
solution to the origin and destination problem posed by the inward and
outward figures for the 40 commodities from and to each port contained in
National Ports Council (annual).
This would give a minimum value for the
tonne-km carried per year for each commodity. However a problem which
would first have to be overcome is that the tonnages of each commodity
inwards and outwards at all ports do not balance. This is because returns
are received from the main, but not from all, the port authorities in Great
Britain, and the figures do not cover the ports of Northern Ireland. The
Isle of Man and the Channel Islands
(National Ports Council annual).
The Annual Report and Accounts of the British Transport Commission (1948 to 1962) and of the British Waterways Board (annual) give details of the tonnes lifted per year and tonne-km moved per year of coal, and patent fuel; liquids in bulk and general merchandise on British Waterways Board canals. However in 1974 there were some 1560 km of commercial waterways of which only 550 km were owned by BWB. Baldwin (1977) has estimated that 380 and 350 million tonne-km were moved on inland waterways in 1973 and 1974 respectively. This is in contrast to the million tonne-km for both years, shown in Central Statistical Office (annual a) which is equal to that moved by BWB only, and the 490 and 400 million tonne-km moved respectively for petroleum alone, as shown in Department of Energy (annual).
One of the problems which would have to be overcome, to prevent double counting, is the exact distinction between costal and inland shipping. Another problem would be how to estimate carryings on non BWB canals for years other than 1973 and 1974. Finally it would be very difficult to obtain a detailed breakdown by commodity beyond the three commodities used in BTC and BWB Report and Accounts.
Central Statistical Office (annual a) gives the tonnes lifted per year and tonne-km moved per year by from 1953 onwards and Department of Energy (annual) gives these plus the average length of haul by pipeline from 1965 to 1975. Only crude and processed oils are considered to be carried by pipeline.
Details of the tonnes lifted per year and tonne-km moved per year by air since 1949 are contained in Central Statistical Office (annual a), but no commodity breakdown is available. However quantities of freight moved by air are negligible compared to other modes, so this lack of commodity detail probably does not matter. For example in 1968 only 0.09 million tonnes and 0.03 thousand million tonne-km were carried by air with totals of 1980 and 130 respectively by all other modes of transport.
One of the major problems in assembling the data would be to obtain consistent commodity groups between the different modes of transport as each uses its own classification systems. The only method found would be to aggregate the data into a few commodity classifications. Details of the Commodity classifications used by each mode of freight transport and their relationship to each other are given in Appendix 2.
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