Michael Baker - Thesis - Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning

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Abstract

Preface

Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

Introduction

1. Freight Transport Statistics

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Review of some past work

1.3 Preliminary analysis

1.4 Further analysis

1.5 Further work

1.6 Conclusions

2. Vehicle Refuelling Infrastructure

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Structure of the VRI study

2.3 Details of the VRI study

2.4 Conclusions to the VRI study

2.5 Further Research

2.6 Lessons I learnt from the VRI study

3. Transport Input-Output Study

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Aims of the Transport Input-Output Study

3.3 Input-Ouput Tables

3.4 Transport entries for the 1974 Input-Output Table

3.5 Lessons I learnt from the Transport Input-Output Study

3.6 Conclusion

4. Review of Lessons learnt

4.1 More detail

4.2 Data problems

4.3 Scenarios

4.4 Modelling of Behaviour

4.5 Conclusion

5. Forecasting

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Review of Forecasting

5.3 Forecasting models

5.4 How Forecasting Models are Constructed

5.5 Inputs to forecasting models

5.6 Summary

6. Criticisms of Forecasting

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Forecasting models

6.3 Input data to forecasting models

6.4 Other criticisms

6.5 Summary

7. Revised View of Forecasting

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Input data

7.3 Models

7.4 Fundamental Problems

7.5 Summary

8. Planning

8.1 Introduction

8.2 A Framework in which to consider Planning

8.3 Why Plan?

8.4 Areas in which Planning is Performed

8.5 Description of the Planning Process

8.6 Why Planning needs Forecasts

8.7 Summary

9. Conclusions and Further Work

9.1 Planning and Forecasting

9.2 Why forecast?

9.3 Ways to avoid forecasts

9.4 Welfare economics

9.5 Further Work

A1. Sources of Data on Freight Transport

A1.1 Introduction

A1.2 Sources of Data used in Chapter 1

A1.3 Sources of Data for Further Work

A1.4 Commodity Classification

A2. Commodity Classifications used for Freight Statistics

A3. Net Physical Volume of Production

A3.1 Introduction

A3.2 Example based on 1968

A3.3 Mathematics of the method used to find net physical production

A3.4 Construction of a commodity by commodity absorption table

A3.5 Finding input-ouput tables for years intermediate to those for which firm tables exist

A3.6 Sources of Data

A4. A Half Hourly Electricity System Model

A4.1 History of the Model

A4.2 Structure

A4.3 Fourier Series

A4.4 Calibration of Model

A4.5 Validation

A4.6 Comments on the Model

A5. Correspondence with the Central Statistical Office

References

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Copyright © Michael Baker 1981,2005. All Rights Reserved.