Michael Baker - Thesis - Problems in Longterm Forecasting and Planning

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Contents

Abstract
Preface
Contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
Introduction
1. Freight Transport Statistics
    1.1 Introduction
    1.2 Review of some past work
    1.3 Preliminary analysis
    1.4 Further analysis
    1.5 Further work
    1.6 Conclusions
2. Vehicle Refuelling Infrastructure
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Structure of the VRI study
    2.3 Details of the VRI study
    2.4 Conclusions to the VRI study
    2.5 Further Research
    2.6 Lessons I learnt from the VRI study
3. Transport Input-Output Study
    3.1 Introduction
    3.2 Aims of the Transport Input-Output Study
    3.3 Input-Ouput Tables
    3.4 Transport entries for the 1974 Input-Output Table
    3.5 Lessons I learnt from the Transport Input-Output Study
    3.6 Conclusion
4. Review of Lessons learnt
    4.1 More detail
    4.2 Data problems
    4.3 Scenarios
    4.4 Modelling of Behaviour
    4.5 Conclusion
5. Forecasting
    5.1 Introduction
    5.2 Review of Forecasting
    5.3 Forecasting models
    5.4 How Forecasting Models are Constructed
    5.5 Inputs to forecasting models
    5.6 Summary
6. Criticisms of Forecasting
    6.1 Introduction
    6.2 Forecasting models
    6.3 Input data to forecasting models
    6.4 Other criticisms
    6.5 Summary
7. Revised View of Forecasting
    7.1 Introduction
    7.2 Input data
    7.3 Models
    7.4 Fundamental Problems
    7.5 Summary
8. Planning
    8.1 Introduction
    8.2 A Framework in which to consider Planning
    8.3 Why Plan?
    8.4 Areas in which Planning is Performed
    8.5 Description of the Planning Process
    8.6 Why Planning needs Forecasts
    8.7 Summary
9. Conclusions and Further Work
    9.1 Planning and Forecasting
    9.2 Why forecast?
    9.3 Ways to avoid forecasts
    9.4 Welfare economics
    9.5 Further Work
A1. Sources of Data on Freight Transport
    A1.1 Introduction
    A1.2 Sources of Data used in Chapter 1
    A1.3 Sources of Data for Further Work
    A1.4 Commodity Classification
A2. Commodity Classifications used for Freight Statistics
A3. Net Physical Volume of Production
    A3.1 Introduction
    A3.2 Example based on 1968
    A3.3 Mathematics of the method used to find net physical production
    A3.4 Construction of a commodity by commodity absorption table
    A3.5 Finding input-ouput tables for years intermediate to those for which firm tables exist
    A3.6 Sources of Data
A4. A Half Hourly Electricity System Model
    A4.1 History of the Model
    A4.2 Structure
    A4.3 Fourier Series
    A4.4 Calibration of Model
    A4.5 Validation
    A4.6 Comments on the Model
A5. Correspondence with the Central Statistical Office
References

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Copyright © Michael Baker 1981,2005. All Rights Reserved.